The Center for Jobs and the Economy tracks closely California’s Trade sector and its importance in creating well-paying, resilient jobs for millions of residents. California’s Trade sector is a national economic powerhouse, with more than 1 in 51 jobs nationwide supported by the sector. To further quantify the impacts of this sector, the Center released a detailed economic study, “Special Report: Economic Importance of Trade & the Ports to Southern California,” which quantified the importance of this sector.

Following the passage of the increase to the minimum wage for specified fast food workers, much attention has been paid to the impacts the wage increase will have on jobs. While anecdotal data, including the closure of legacy fast-food chain stores in California, has made headlines, we are now able to use empirical data to track the law’s impacts on jobs and the economy. Despite what some are saying, the data are clear: newly passed fast food minimum wage laws are leading to job losses in California.

The JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) estimates continue to indicate California employers are cutting back on their hiring plans, reducing the likely scale of future jobs growth in the state.

The July numbers were generally positive, but again at levels showing the state economy largely running in place. After posting the worst unemployment rate among the states 5 months in a row, California finally notched down to the second worst in July, tying with Illinois in that slot. The total number of unemployed, however, remained above the 1 million mark for the 7th month in a row. Employment while showing a marginal gain of 7,300 for the month still was 88,700 below the near term high posted in May 2023.

The June trade data again showed positive news for California. Origin exports rose 1.6% in nominal terms compared to June 2023. Overall trade activity through the state ports rose 11.9% over this period as imports in particular surged 13.6% as shippers began holiday stocking early in response to rising risks of supply disruptions and looming rises in tariffs.