California real GDP slowed to an annualized rate of 1.2% from 3.1% in 4th Quarter 2023. California was below the overall US average of 1.4% and posted 28th highest among the states. Using the current projections from the April International Monetary Fund, World Outlook, continued growth at the current GDP rate would push California below India to shift from 5th to the 6th largest economy by 2025.

The migration of high earners to other states showed only minor changes in 2022, according to the annual release of tax migration data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). In tax year 2022, the number of high earner households leaving the state increased 7.2% to 48,875, taking with them a total AGI (adjusted gross income) of $31.5 billion. This increase was partially offset by a rise in the number of high earners moving into the state, rising to 24,205 with total AGI of $15.5 billion.

Both the nonfarm job and employment numbers showed positive gains in May but again at different scales. Nonfarm jobs rose by 43,700, while the previously reported April gains were revised down by 1,100 to 4,100. With the preliminary May results, nonfarm jobs have now averaged gains of 17,000 in the first 5 months of 2024, higher than the 6,400 average set in the same period last year and closer to the 20,800 average for the entire pre-pandemic year of 2019.

Dominated by the surge in imports, total trade through the state’s ports rose $8.4 billion (13.3%) compared to April 2023. On a nominal basis, total trade through the state’s ports in the first 4 months of the year was 8.3% higher than the same period in 2023, and only $10 billion below the level reached in 2022.

In March, California continued its energy cost trifecta with the highest residential, commercial, and industrial electricity prices among the contiguous states. These rankings join the highest cost postings for gasoline and diesel as well.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis recent release of a new series tracking the economic contributions of R&D activities in each of the states provides a timely data base to evaluate proposals in the May Revise related to business tax credits.