News & Updates - California Business Roundtable and Pepperdine University School of Public Policy Release Updated Polling Results

Propositions 30, 32 leading, Proposition 38 failing

The California Business Roundtable and Pepperdine University School of Public Policy today released initial results in their bi-monthly polling series leading up to the November election. The innovative, online poll simulates voters’ actual experience at the ballot box by allowing participants to view the measure’s title and summary before indicating how they might vote. Future polling will include ballot arguments and other relevant information as it becomes available.

“This poll shows that Californians have not yet made up their mind about a number of key policy issues in November’s election including taxes, capital punishment and campaign finance,” said Dr. Chris Condon. “Much of the results will come down to turnout. On the highest-profile initiatives like Governor Brown’s tax measure, Molly Munger’s tax measure and repeal of the death penalty, support was highest among voters with a Democratic voting history.”

To view the full results including cross-tabs, click here.

To take the online survey, click here.

Topline results:

Proposition 30 (Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment)

Strongly Yes 20.2
Somewhat Yes 17.3
Leaning Yes 18.7
Yes 56.2
No 39.2
Leaning No 10.1
Somewhat No 5.4
Strongly No 23.6
Unsure 4.6

 

Proposition 31 (State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.)

Strongly Yes 7.9
Somewhat Yes 13.6
Leaning Yes 29.5
Yes 51.0
No 33.5
Leaning No 20.0
Somewhat No 5.7
Strongly No 7.9
Unsure 15.5

 

Proposition 32 (Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute.)

Strongly Yes 23.2
Somewhat Yes 18.2
Leaning Yes 18.6
Yes 60.0
No 28.9
Leaning No 10.3
Somewhat No 7.0
Strongly No 11.6
Unsure 11.1

 

Proposition 33 (Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver’s History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.)

Strongly Yes 16.5
Somewhat Yes 18.7
Leaning Yes 24.0
Yes 59.3
No 28.7
Leaning No 10.7
Somewhat No 6.1
Strongly No 11.9
Unsure 12.0

 

Proposition 34 (Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.)

Strongly Yes 19.7
Somewhat Yes 11.8
Leaning Yes 14.1
Yes 45.5
No 46.7
Leaning No 10.7
Somewhat No 7.1
Strongly No 28.9
Unsure 7.8

 

Proposition 35 (Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.)

Strongly Yes 49.3
Somewhat Yes 20.2
Leaning Yes 18.7
Yes 88.2
No 6.4
Leaning No 3.6
Somewhat No 1.8
Strongly No 1.0
Unsure 5.4

 

Proposition 36 (Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.)

Strongly Yes 23.1
Somewhat Yes 23.4
Leaning Yes 25.3
Yes 71.7
No 19.0
Leaning No 7.3
Somewhat No 4.5
Strongly No 7.2
Unsure 9.3

 

Proposition 37 (Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.)

Strongly Yes 27.2
Somewhat Yes 19.6
Leaning Yes 18.1
Yes 64.9
No 23.9
Leaning No 10.1
Somewhat No 7.6
Strongly No 6.2
Unsure 11.3

 

Proposition 38 (Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute.)

Strongly Yes 7.2
Somewhat Yes 10.5
Leaning Yes 17.3
Yes 35.0
No 54.2
Leaning No 12.1
Somewhat No 14.0
Strongly No 28.1
Unsure 10.8

 

Proposition 39 (Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.)

Strongly Yes 18.4
Somewhat Yes 14.0
Leaning Yes 23.0
Yes 55.4
No 27.2
Leaning No 9.1
Somewhat No 5.4
Strongly No 12.8
Unsure 17.4

 

Proposition 40 (Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.)

Strongly Yes 19.7
Somewhat Yes 16.0
Leaning Yes 19.9
Yes 55.7
No 21.5
Leaning No 10.6
Somewhat No 4.2
Strongly No 6.8
Unsure 22.8

 

About the methodology: M4 strategies conducted an online opinion poll of 800 likely California General Election voters from July 16 to July 17, 2012. Participants viewed the “ballot initiative” page and recorded how they are inclined to vote given the current information, including a review of the Title and Summary created by the Attorney General. As ballot arguments and other information become available from the Secretary of State it will be included in future surveys, including a Spanish-language version of the ballot.

When taking the survey, participants were able, and encouraged, to review all of the qualified ballot initiatives before voting. This instrument design is intended to simulate the context in which voters are able to read and consider all prospective initiatives before voting by mail or at the polls on Election Day. The survey can be viewed here. To receive future releases of the poll please sign up here.

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